What's behind Manchester City's Midwinter Blues?

“[the]team do all hard work keeping possession then u hit row Z every @£*&%$*  time!!”

The Manchester United fan that tweeted this to Darren Gibson’s ill-fated twitter account may well have been choking on his words by the end of Wednesday night’s premier league action. Gibson’s strike for Everton meant that goal difference is now the only thing separating Roberto Mancini’s side from their city rivals. Yet how exactly did this happen? As autumn drew to a close many were ready to anoint Sheik Mansour’s petro dollar funded squad as the new kings of England and yet as we enter February the title race has once again become a three way battle with Tottenham refusing to let the two Manchester clubs have everything their own way. No doubt great credit is due to both Spurs and United for keeping themselves in the hunt but at the same time one must address the question of why have City begun to stutter since the last leaves of autumn fell and winter arrived?

The comparisons with Manchester City this season and Chelsea last season are certainly there to be looked at. Few could forget the manner in which Chelsea were being proclaimed as an unstoppable force at the start of last season which began with 8 victories in 10 games and a goal aggregate of 22-3. Chelsea, like City this season, benefitted from a fairly kind fixture list and did this favorable start potentially give and continue to give us and City a false sense of just how good they really are? Let us not forget that they failed to get out of an admittedly difficult champions league group and have gone out of both domestic cup competitions, and in the case of the Carling Cup having surrendered a winning position. 

Whilst for many Manchester City’s sacking of Old Trafford was a seismic event in establishing where the power lay in English football, the fortunes of the two clubs since then makes for intriguing reading. Since that Mario Ballotelli inspired trouncing, Manchester City have only won two away games from a possible seven, drawing another two and losing three. In comparison, before they visited Old Trafford their away record read played five won four drawn one. In contrast Manchester United’s away form since that day, reads played seven won 6 with 5 clean sheets thrown in for good measure. There can be no doubt that Manchester City have suffered a not insignificant dip in form since their last visit to the theatre of dreams. What reasons can we pinpoint for this alarming drop in City’s effectiveness, particularly away from home.

First and foremost the enforced absence of Yaya Toure and Vincent Kompany due to international commitments and suspension respectively, hurt and continues to hurt the club. The results as well as the defensive vulnerability in Kompany’s absence were pretty damning. Defeat over two legs to Liverpool in the league cup, a fairly unconvincing 3-2 victory at home to Tottenham which they could have easily lost, not to mention the defeat suffered at home to United in the FA cup when Kompany received his marching orders. With Kompany returning it will be bring a more calming presence to the backline and his ease bringing the ball out of defence will aid City as an offensive unit.

 The loss of Yaya Toure has perhaps been felt at the Etihad even more than the absence of their captain. Mancini was startlingly frank in his assessment that City simply did not have another player like the Ivorian and that has been shown in his absence. Aside from his numerous technical qualities, such as his lung-bursting and pitch covering dribbles, it has been plainly obvious that since his arrival he has emerged as a real leader and even in a squad of numerous top class internationals he is looked up to and respected. Whether it’s David Silva, Samir Nasri, Sergio Aguero or Mario Balotelli you can tell merely from watching City on the pitch that they hold Toure in the highest of esteem and a certain drive and inspiration has been missing from the heart of City’s team since he departed for the Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.

Equally the loss of Toure and the regular absences of Mario Balotelli, through first an ankle injury and then the most idiotic of suspensions, has impacted upon Roberto Mancini’s desire to play with a fluid forward line capable of constantly rotating positions. At their best early on in the season and particularly away against both Manchester United and Chelsea, City were at their most creative and devastating when their forward line was able to seamlessly switch positions. The absence of Ballotelli has meant that Edin Dzeko has had to play and this impacts greatly upon the teams flexibility.

 In the majority of city’s “big games” this season Mancini has paired Balotelli and Sergio Aguero and the capability of both these players to drift wide or deep has been a key factor in creating space for others, David Silva especially.  Whilst Dzeko is a player who has much to admire, he has neither the pace nor technical gifts to drop wide or deep and as a result City become a less threatening when he leads the line. Equally having to play Dzeko in the absence of Balotelli results in City offering far less of a threat in behind the oppositions defence.

The opening goal scored by Balotelli at Chelsea is a fantastic illustration of what the mercurial Italian offers with a turn of pace which Dzeko cannot hope to match. Equally Balotelli is of a much higher technical level which creates better opportunities to bring the best out of the brilliant Aguero than Dzeko when the two are paid together,  and as such City’s interplay can seem rather pedestrian and one paced with Dzeko leading the line. Mancini prefers to have the option of bringing Dzeko of the bench late in games when teams begin to drop deep, as teams become more susceptible to crosses from out wide for the Bosnian to attack.

With all this in mind, perhaps the idea of Carlos Tevez actually stepping out onto a football pitch in a city shirt is not quite as implausible as it seemed a few months back. There is no doubt that a fully fit and focused Tevez (which admittedly was last seen probably four years ago) would suit the rotating and flexible frontline that Mancini desires. The premier league and champions league winning united side of 07/08 was built around the constant movement and positional rotation that Wayne Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo fostered with the controversial Argentine.

The next five league games will tell us a great deal about how City will be approaching the run in for the championship. Home matches with Fulham, Blackburn and Bolton coupled with trips to Villa Park and the Liberty Stadium must yield as close to 15 points as possible for City to regain the confidence and momentum that they have undoubtedly misplaced. If Mancini’s men can emerge from this run of fixtures still at the summit of the premier league it will stand them in good stead for what is a fairly daunting run in. Trips to Stoke, Arsenal and Newcastle are fraught with danger and with Chelsea to visit the Etihad looking to complete a double over city, Roberto Mancini will be desperate to have restored City’s advantage at the top of the league by the time April 30^th rolls round and Manchester United visit Eastlands in a match that may very well decide who will be kings of not only Salford and Wilmslow but of English football.